Equilibrium Model of the Russian Economy for the period of Global Financial Crisis
The report examines the unprecedented features of the modern economy, and yet only limited answers to this challenge, which gives modern science. A general structure of the existing models is considered. The report presents three product intertemporal equilibrium model of the Russian economy. Three aggregated products: export, domestic and imported are distinguished by a special procedure of nonlinear disaggregation of macroeconomic balance. The model describes dynamic of the Russian economy as a result of interaction of 9 aggregated economic agents : Producer, Bank, Owner, Household, Trader, The State, The Central Bank, Importer and Exporter. The model successfully reproduces dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP and its components, inflation, loans, deposits, etc.) for ten years, including the period of the global crisis. The identified model demonstrates the strong turnpike property: even the agents are allowed to know the future, this information has little effect on their optimal behavior.
| 10.09.2013 | |